Trump took a big hit this week as the latest polls show Virginia has swung strongly to Clinton. With Clinton favored by 7.5%, Virginia is no longer in play. States in which Clinton leads Trump in the polls by 5% or more now total 273 giving Clinton all she needs to win in November. By comparison, Trump has 164 EC votes in 5%+ states. There are 7 states in play, 6 of which favor Clinton. Trump must win all of them, plus 1 or 2 states that are Strong Clinton states. His road is now effectively closed and he must reopen it. He is making no effort to do so.
Trump continues to avoid hitting Clinton on the issues where she's vulnerable, instead making clearly ridiculous claims that he later describes as sarcasm except that when he made them and was questioned in insisted he was serious. Sure he was (that's sarcasm). Trump continues to self-destruct. His antics with the media are having the opposite effect of what they had in the primaries where his outlandish pronouncements produced more support. Now, voter are being drive away.
This is no surprise. When Trump secured the nomination, there were numerous warnings that the media coverage would become negative in the general campaign and that has proved to be the case. Clinton has little need to attack Trump or discuss the issues. She can follow the advise of Napoleon: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” Trump's entire campaign has been one mistake after another.
Gary Johnson continues to direct his campaign to the left in a new appeal to millennials. He is holding nationally at 8.3% and probably needs to poll higher to goet on stage for the debates.
Showing posts with label Vote. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vote. Show all posts
Sunday, August 14, 2016
Friday, August 12, 2016
Why I'm “wasting” my vote
A lot of people keep asking why I want to "waste" my vote on Gary Johnson when we need to stop Hillary. OK, I'll tell you.
In a presidential race, there is one poll that is very revealing but too often overlooked. That is the favorable/unfavorable rating. Two months ago, before the conventions, Trump and Clinton were within 2 points of each other in both, with unfavorable ratings of ~60% and favorable ratings of ~40%. for a -20% spread. Since the conventions, those numbers have changed considerably.
The latest polls show Trump with a 61.4% unfavorable; 32.8% favorable, a -28.6% spread. But Hillary has closed the gap with a 53.3% unfavorable; 42.4% favorable; -10.9% spread.
This tells us what? Well, it tells us that more people dislike Trump than dislike Hillary It also tells us that more people are switching their favorable opinion from Trump to Hillary.
Most of this is due to Trump, who continues to try to campaign with both feet in his mouth. Trump is his own worst enemy. He is undermining his own campaign and shows no sign of changing course.
Either a Trump or a Hillary Clinton presidency would be a disaster for this country and its future, but only one of them can win in November, and that is Hillary. Hillary has 260 electoral votes locked up and only needs to win one of 6 toss up states to win. Trump has to win 8 more states and 7 of them favor Hillary. Trump has no chance, mostly thanks to Trump being who he is. If the goal is to stop Hillary in November, voting for Trump is not going to do it. If a vote for a candidate that can't win is ever a wasted vote, a vote for Trump is a wasted vote.
But winning in November is not the only way to stop Hillary. She may be the only candidate that can win in November, but that doesn't mean she can't lose.
Hillary's unfavorables still top her favorables. There are still more people who dislike her than like her. These votes can still be drawn away from her by a viable candidate with better ratings. That is not Trump, but it could be Gary Johnson. A recent NBC poll shows that Johnson would pull more votes away from Hillary than from Trump. Johnson's unfave/fave/spread is 16%/15.4%/+0.6%. The problem is, his level of support is too low. If he can get into the debates and increase his exposure, and become a viable candidate, he has a chance to win enough states to deadlock the Electoral College and stop Hillary in November. He is the only one who can.
A deadlocked EC means the Republican controlled House will elect the President. The House will vote by state, each state getting 1 vote representing the will of that state's delegation. Republicans control more state delegations, so House Republicans would elect the next President. It is highly unlikely they will elect Hillary. They may elect Trump, or they may go with a fromer 2 time Republican governor, Johnson. Either way, Hillary is stopped.
But that is the only way to stop her.
In a presidential race, there is one poll that is very revealing but too often overlooked. That is the favorable/unfavorable rating. Two months ago, before the conventions, Trump and Clinton were within 2 points of each other in both, with unfavorable ratings of ~60% and favorable ratings of ~40%. for a -20% spread. Since the conventions, those numbers have changed considerably.
The latest polls show Trump with a 61.4% unfavorable; 32.8% favorable, a -28.6% spread. But Hillary has closed the gap with a 53.3% unfavorable; 42.4% favorable; -10.9% spread.
This tells us what? Well, it tells us that more people dislike Trump than dislike Hillary It also tells us that more people are switching their favorable opinion from Trump to Hillary.
Most of this is due to Trump, who continues to try to campaign with both feet in his mouth. Trump is his own worst enemy. He is undermining his own campaign and shows no sign of changing course.
Either a Trump or a Hillary Clinton presidency would be a disaster for this country and its future, but only one of them can win in November, and that is Hillary. Hillary has 260 electoral votes locked up and only needs to win one of 6 toss up states to win. Trump has to win 8 more states and 7 of them favor Hillary. Trump has no chance, mostly thanks to Trump being who he is. If the goal is to stop Hillary in November, voting for Trump is not going to do it. If a vote for a candidate that can't win is ever a wasted vote, a vote for Trump is a wasted vote.
But winning in November is not the only way to stop Hillary. She may be the only candidate that can win in November, but that doesn't mean she can't lose.
Hillary's unfavorables still top her favorables. There are still more people who dislike her than like her. These votes can still be drawn away from her by a viable candidate with better ratings. That is not Trump, but it could be Gary Johnson. A recent NBC poll shows that Johnson would pull more votes away from Hillary than from Trump. Johnson's unfave/fave/spread is 16%/15.4%/+0.6%. The problem is, his level of support is too low. If he can get into the debates and increase his exposure, and become a viable candidate, he has a chance to win enough states to deadlock the Electoral College and stop Hillary in November. He is the only one who can.
A deadlocked EC means the Republican controlled House will elect the President. The House will vote by state, each state getting 1 vote representing the will of that state's delegation. Republicans control more state delegations, so House Republicans would elect the next President. It is highly unlikely they will elect Hillary. They may elect Trump, or they may go with a fromer 2 time Republican governor, Johnson. Either way, Hillary is stopped.
But that is the only way to stop her.
Friday, November 06, 2009
Government of—not by—the people
Given the turnout for recent elections, it may be presumed that Americans don't care much about their freedom either. A great majority choose to leave governing to others and do not vote, leaving one to assume they don't care how they are governed as long as someone else does it.
The majority of the ones that do vote, complain that their views are not adequately represented yet consistently vote for the same representatives that they complain about. Generally because it is just too much trouble to do anything other than vote for the candidates that are presented to them. Again leaving one to assume that they don't care who governs them as long as someone else does it.
The Democrat and Republican parties are two sides of the same coin. Both seek power to govern the many for the benefit of the few. Neither wishes to represent the interests of the voters, instead, they wish the voters to embrace the interests of the party. And then go away while the government pursues policies that benefit the supporters of the party in power.
By supporters, I mean financial supporters. There are two kinds of votes in this country, everybody has one that they cast on election day. But those are not the "voters" that are represented. It is the "vote" of the monetary contributor that speaks the loudest and those "voters" are the ones whose interests are represented.
The monetary vote can be trumped by real voters refusing to vote for the candidates that are presented. But refusing to cast a vote for the major parties is not enough. The vote still has to be case for someone to have any weight. Vote for who you know, even if it is your neighbor or best friend. Write in their name. Write in votes are still legal and must be counted.
One way or another, we are responsible for the government we have. If it is going to change, we have to change it ourselves with our votes, not hope someone else will and wait for it to happen.
The majority of the ones that do vote, complain that their views are not adequately represented yet consistently vote for the same representatives that they complain about. Generally because it is just too much trouble to do anything other than vote for the candidates that are presented to them. Again leaving one to assume that they don't care who governs them as long as someone else does it.
The Democrat and Republican parties are two sides of the same coin. Both seek power to govern the many for the benefit of the few. Neither wishes to represent the interests of the voters, instead, they wish the voters to embrace the interests of the party. And then go away while the government pursues policies that benefit the supporters of the party in power.
By supporters, I mean financial supporters. There are two kinds of votes in this country, everybody has one that they cast on election day. But those are not the "voters" that are represented. It is the "vote" of the monetary contributor that speaks the loudest and those "voters" are the ones whose interests are represented.
The monetary vote can be trumped by real voters refusing to vote for the candidates that are presented. But refusing to cast a vote for the major parties is not enough. The vote still has to be case for someone to have any weight. Vote for who you know, even if it is your neighbor or best friend. Write in their name. Write in votes are still legal and must be counted.
One way or another, we are responsible for the government we have. If it is going to change, we have to change it ourselves with our votes, not hope someone else will and wait for it to happen.
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