A lot of people keep asking why I want to "waste" my vote on Gary Johnson when we need to stop Hillary. OK, I'll tell you.
In a presidential race, there is one poll that is very revealing but too often overlooked. That is the favorable/unfavorable rating. Two months ago, before the conventions, Trump and Clinton were within 2 points of each other in both, with unfavorable ratings of ~60% and favorable ratings of ~40%. for a -20% spread. Since the conventions, those numbers have changed considerably.
The latest polls show Trump with a 61.4% unfavorable; 32.8% favorable, a -28.6% spread. But Hillary has closed the gap with a 53.3% unfavorable; 42.4% favorable; -10.9% spread.
This tells us what? Well, it tells us that more people dislike Trump than dislike Hillary It also tells us that more people are switching their favorable opinion from Trump to Hillary.
Most of this is due to Trump, who continues to try to campaign with both feet in his mouth. Trump is his own worst enemy. He is undermining his own campaign and shows no sign of changing course.
Either a Trump or a Hillary Clinton presidency would be a disaster for this country and its future, but only one of them can win in November, and that is Hillary. Hillary has 260 electoral votes locked up and only needs to win one of 6 toss up states to win. Trump has to win 8 more states and 7 of them favor Hillary. Trump has no chance, mostly thanks to Trump being who he is. If the goal is to stop Hillary in November, voting for Trump is not going to do it. If a vote for a candidate that can't win is ever a wasted vote, a vote for Trump is a wasted vote.
But winning in November is not the only way to stop Hillary. She may be the only candidate that can win in November, but that doesn't mean she can't lose.
Hillary's unfavorables still top her favorables. There are still more people who dislike her than like her. These votes can still be drawn away from her by a viable candidate with better ratings. That is not Trump, but it could be Gary Johnson. A recent NBC poll shows that Johnson would pull more votes away from Hillary than from Trump. Johnson's unfave/fave/spread is 16%/15.4%/+0.6%. The problem is, his level of support is too low. If he can get into the debates and increase his exposure, and become a viable candidate, he has a chance to win enough states to deadlock the Electoral College and stop Hillary in November. He is the only one who can.
A deadlocked EC means the Republican controlled House will elect the President. The House will vote by state, each state getting 1 vote representing the will of that state's delegation. Republicans control more state delegations, so House Republicans would elect the next President. It is highly unlikely they will elect Hillary. They may elect Trump, or they may go with a fromer 2 time Republican governor, Johnson. Either way, Hillary is stopped.
But that is the only way to stop her.
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